Foreign policy decision-making within authoritarian contexts: Al-Sisi’s foreign policy (2014–2024)

How do authoritarian rulers make foreign policy decisions? Building on the triangulation of three qualitative research methods, I advance a theoretical construct that deconstructs authoritarian regimes’ decision-making processes in foreign policy. Drawing inspiration from al-Sisi’s foreign policy, this study argues that authoritarian rulers adopt three types of decision-making tools, which consist of structural control, the prioritization of securing external support and elite material benefits over citizens’ wellbeing, and the repression of opponents beyond national borders. Although scholars have emphasized authoritarian regimes’ instrumentalization of foreign policy as a means of rule consolidation, they have overlooked their prevalent decision-making mechanisms and tools. Building on an inductive research approach, this study triangulates data collected using 3 qualitative research methods, 20 open-ended and semi-structured expert interviews, the analysis of newsfeed content, and discourse analysis of al-Sisi speeches from 2014 to 2024. A rigorous cross-validation of data confirmed the replicability of al-Sisi’s threefold foreign policy decision-making tools across authoritarian and hybrid regimes.