Sustainable Governance on the Belt and Road Initiative Toward a Carbon-Zero, Regional, Eco-Friendly Logistics Hub: A Difference-In-Differences Perspective

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China in in 2013 prioritizes environmental sustainability and regional economic development from a global perspective. Although the BRI has achieved considerable economic progress in many cities and regions, research on its environmental impacts is still insufficient, with limited attention paid to domestic urban areas in particular. Existing studies have focused primarily on carbon emissions, ignoring the broader environmental impacts of industrial emissions, such as those from smart transportation. To address this gap, this study adopts four major pollutant emissions—carbon dioxide (CO2), industrial particulate matter, industrial sulfur dioxide (SO2), and industrial wastewater emissions—as indicators to assess pollution levels in urban environments. Adopting panel data from 281 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2021, this study employs the difference-in-differences (DID) method to estimate the effect of the BRI on urban environmental pollution. This study is based on the following hypotheses: Hypothesis 1. BRI implementation has reduced urban pollution emissions. Hypothesis 2. Advancements in science and technology will drive the implementation of the BRI. Hypothesis 3. A proactive government response can significantly reduce urban environmental pollution. The main findings of this study are as follows. First, BRI implementation significantly reduces urban environmental pollution by 1.05%. Second, the policy effects of the BRI are more pronounced in the eastern and western regions and in larger cities, implying that geopolitical- and market-oriented strategies are important for regional performance. Third, scientific and technological progress positively affects pollution reduction in urban environments. Fourth, the BRI contributes to strengthening government intervention, which subsequently improves sustainable governance, reduces urban environmental pollution, and promotes regional economic cooperation. Our findings will serve as a crucial reference for future policymaking endeavors toward eco-friendly logistics cooperation in the region.