From sandstorms to deluges: assessing flood risks in Al Ain City, United Arab Emirates

In recent years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has experienced a marked increase in extreme rainfall events, challenging urban planning and infrastructure. This study investigates four extreme rainfall events in Al Ain, UAE, between 2007 and 2020, using data from 11 rain gauges and estimates from three satellite precipitation products. These events set new rainfall records, with some gauges recording up to 195.7 mm and intensities exceeding 175 mm/hr. Comparisons revealed significant discrepancies among satellite products, which underestimated three events and overestimated one. A watershed encompassing Al Ain was delineated, and runoff from these events was simulated using the fully distributed, physically based GSSHA hydrologic model. The model provided detailed, spatially explicit runoff estimates, highlighting urban areas of Al Ain as particularly vulnerable to flooding. Despite low runoff ratios (0.11% to 3.14%) due to high infiltration rates, significant flooding occurred in urban regions, emphasizing compounded flood risks from intense rainfall and rapid urban expansion. The study discusses general mitigation strategies that can be considered to enhance Al Ain’s resilience, ensuring the safety of residents and infrastructure and managing escalating flood hazards amid increasingly extreme weather patterns. Thoroughly evaluated strategies are essential for adapting to the dynamic climate and safeguarding urban areas from future extreme weather events.