Simulation of Seawater Intrusion and Upconing Processes in Mediterranean Aquifer in Response to Climate Change (Plana de Castellón, Spain)

In coastal regions, groundwater is often the only freshwater resource available for human consumption, agriculture, and other productive activities. From a management point of view, it is essential to understand the processes that occur in a coastal aquifer affected by seawater intrusion and upconing processes and evaluate their potential response to climate change as these scenarios usually indicate a decrease in aquifer recharge. Therefore, the dynamics of seawater intrusion and the upconing process in the Plana de Castellón aquifer on the Mediterranean coast were analysed by building and calibrating a new numerical model of flow and transport using the MODFLOW and SEAWAT codes. The model was used to examine two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate change scenarios (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5) when considering field data with constant extraction conditions. The results suggest that by 2050, groundwater levels could rise by 0.18 m (on average) in the SSP1–2.6 scenario and by 0.12 m for the SSP5–8.5 scenario. In these cases, aquifer recharge and groundwater discharge to the sea could increase compared to the historical period, as precipitation is not expected to decrease significantly during this timeframe, even in the most unfavourable scenario (SSP5–8.5). The result would be the attenuation of seawater intrusion and a decrease in the volume of the aquifer that is affected by the upconing process, resulting in total dissolved solids values below 2000 mg/L. The innovation of this research lies in the fact that the numerical model allowed the dynamics of seawater intrusion and the upconing process to be adequately represented, especially in the latter process, as it was not possible to model it with real data in another study. These results can improve and facilitate decision-making for the management of the aquifer and contribute to plans for future exploitation strategies.