On the Temporal Decay of Tropical Cyclones Over the Ocean

Abstract It is important to understand how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay over the ocean as this is a critical pre‐landfall stage. A modified exponential decay model ( model) with two parameters and is proposed. The scale parameter defines the decay scale, while the shape parameter determines whether the decay rate decelerates or accelerates over time. Global fittings indicate that around 40% of TCs exhibit decelerating decay , while the majority (about 60%) show accelerating decay . Correlation analysis reveals a strong negative correlation between the scale parameter and the initial Coriolis parameter and a positive correlation between the shape parameter and the meridional component of the initial translation velocity . The model provides a comprehensive understanding of how TCs decay with time and how environmental conditions affect the decay scale and evolution.