Integrating Ward’s Clustering Stratification and Spatially Correlated Poisson Disk Sampling to Enhance the Accuracy of Forest Aboveground Carbon Stock Estimation

In forest resource surveys, using sampling methods to estimate aboveground carbon stock (ACS) can significantly reduce survey costs. This study improves the accuracy of ACS estimation by optimizing the stratified sampling design. The sampling process was divided into two stages: stratification and intra-stratum sampling. For stratification, remote sensing features were used as stratification variables, and a spatial clustering stratification method was introduced. For intra-stratum sampling, a composite method, Spatially Correlated Poisson Disk Sampling (SCPDS), was proposed. Using Random Forest (RF) and the sample points selected by SCPDS, the ACS was estimated and compared with traditional sampling methods for Pinus densata in Shangri-La, Yunnan, China. The results showed that (1) by selecting effective stratification variables (e.g., texture features), the required sample size was reduced by up to 19.35% compared to that of simple random sampling; (2) the Ward clustering method greatly improved stratification heterogeneity; (3) for intra-stratum sampling, the SCPDS method ensured spatial independence within strata, particularly at low sampling rates (1%–5%), where its error was significantly lower than that of other methods, indicating greater stability and improved accuracy; (4) the SCPDS-based model achieved the best fitting accuracy, with R2 = 0.886. The total carbon stock of Pinus densata using RF was 7,872,787.5 t, closely matching forest management inventory (FMI) data. Through sampling, even with a relatively small sample size, the representative plots can still accurately reflect ACS estimates that are consistent with those derived from large-scale plot surveys. Thus, the optimized stratified sampling method effectively reduced sampling costs while significantly enhancing the stability and accuracy of the results.