Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Factors of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) in the Wuding River Basin, China: Impacts of Ecological Restoration

Over the past two decades, large-scale ecological restoration in the Loess Plateau has significantly transformed land use and land cover (LULC) in the Wuding River Basin (WRB), improving ecological governance and environmental conditions. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of LULC and its driving factors from 2000 to 2020, employing methods such as the LULC dynamic degree, transfer matrix, migration trajectory, and geographical detector. Results show that (1) grassland dominates the basin’s LULC (78.16%), with decreases in cropland and desert areas, and expansions in grassland, forest, and urban areas. Water bodies show minimal fluctuations. The mean annual dynamic degree of LULC types (from highest to lowest) is as follows: forest > desert > urban > water > cropland > grassland. The overall dynamic degree fluctuated, initially decreasing (0.85%–0.68%), then increasing (0.68–0.89%), followed by another decline (0.89–0.30%). (2) LULC patterns follow a northwest-to-southeast gradient, with primary transitions from desert and cropland to grassland and secondary transitions to forest, urban, and water bodies. Spatial migration mainly shifts westward and northward. (3) Under the single-factor influence, natural factors, especially slope (7.2–36.4%) and precipitation (6.1–22.3%), are the primary drivers of LULC changes, with population density (7.9%) and GDP (27.5%) influencing urban areas. In the interaction of factors, topography and climate (40.5–66.1%) primarily drive increases in cropland, forest, and grassland, while human activities and climate (24.8–36.7%) influence urban and water area expansion. Desert area reduction is largely driven by climatic factors (40.3%). The interaction between two factors shows either a bi-factorial or nonlinear enhancement effect, suggesting that their combined influence offers stronger explanatory power than any single factor alone. This study highlights significant LULC changes in the WRB, driven by both natural factors and human activities, contributing to enhanced ecological governance and land use sustainability.