Foreign exchange market disequilibrium, bitcoin price volatility, and macroeconomic performance: Comparative analysis of selected African and ASEAN countries

This study has empirically examined the impact of foreign exchange market disequilibirum and Bitcoin price volatility on macroeconomic performance in African (Nigeria and Ghana) and ASEAN (Singapore and Malaysia) nations. The quantile regression method was executed. The research findings are as follows: A 1 percent increase in exchange rate disequilibrium contributed to GDP of Singapore by 0.001319 percnt while improves the GDP of Malaysia by 0.0086 percent respectively. The significance of such forex market has tended towards stability. Comparatively, the disequilibrium in the exchange rate signficantly reduces GDP of Nigeria. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the impact from the 10th quantile was seemingly in decreasing order. A similar declining size effect was found for Ghana from the 10th to the 40th quantile, and from the 50th to the 90th quantile, the size effect on Ghana’s GDP increased in magnitude. The economic significance of these findings is a reirnforncement of the instability of the foreign exchnaeg market in Nigeria and Ghana. The first and seventh quantiles in Singapore and Malaysia were mostly affected by the fluctuations in bitcoin prices. Bitcoin's price volatility had a considerable impact on the GDPs of Ghana, Malaysia, and Nigeria in every quantile (10th to 90th). GDP was positively impacted by significant inflation from the 10th to the 40th percentile. In the 90th quantile, there was just an inverse relationship between inflation and real GDP. All quantiles of Nigeria's GDP were inveresely impacted by the inflation rate, while it had negligible effects on Ghana's GDP . By quantitatively identifying the effects that foreign currency market disequilibrium and Bitcoin price volatility have on the real GDP growth rate in the countries covered by the study, the research findings additionally supplement the scant available evidence. The government should ensure that they always have a buffer stock of foreign currency such as the United States Dollar (USD) so as to be able to manage any shock that may create unfavourable volatility in the local foreign exchange market in Nigeria.