The India-Vietnam-China geopolitical triangle and Vietnam’s measures to navigate this relationship from a two-level game theory perspective

In the context of intensifying strategic competition between India and China in Southeast Asia, Vietnam is facing a mix of challenges and opportunities in its relations with these “two Asian giants”. Occupying a crucial geostrategic position along vital maritime trade routes in the East Sea, Vietnam plays a critical role in the foreign policies of these two powers in the Southeast Asian region. Since 1991, India has implemented its Look East policy, which later evolved into the Act East policy in 2014 to enhance comprehensive cooperation with Vietnam. Meanwhile, China has also reestablished diplomatic relations with Vietnam in 1991 and intensified its neighborhood diplomacy, increasingly using economic power and military strategies in the East Sea to enhance its influence in this country. Therefore, Vietnam is one of the Southeast Asian countries that is deeply affected by the power competition between these two great powers. This article employs policy analysis and historical-logical methods to interpret the strategic competition between India and China in Vietnam. The research results will depict a comprehensive picture of the dynamics, strategies, and impacts of the strategic competition between India and China in Vietnam. Through this, a theoretical framework based on Robert Putnam’s two-level game theory will be developed to assess Vietnam’s response in “flexibly balancing” and navigating the competitive relationship between the two most powerful Asian powers today. By examining Vietnam’s pivotal role in this geopolitical triangle, the research contributes to a deeper understanding of the broader implications for regional stability and the evolving power dynamics in Southeast Asia. It also sheds light on the challenges faced by smaller nations in maintaining strategic autonomy amidst great power competition.