Simulation of modern and future climate by INM-CM6M

Abstract The paper considers the results of climate change modelling for 1850–2100 using the INM-CM6M climate model of the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The calculations were performed according to the CMIP6 protocol for modelling the present-day climate for the period from 1850 to 2014 and the IPCC scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 of anthropogenic forcing changes in 2015–2100. We analyse changes in such characteristics of the climate system as global mean near-surface temperature, spatial distributions of near-surface temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and radiative forcing characteristics in comparison with observational data and results obtained with the previous (INM-CM5) version of the model. We conclude that the new version of the model is superior to the previous one in terms of the quality of simulation of the observed climate and its changes in 1960–2022. The amplitude of global warming predicted by the INM-CM6M for moderate IPCC scenarios is close to the average value of the CMIP6 model ensemble, and for severe scenarios it is closer to the upper limit of its range. For the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, INM-CM6M predicts a complete loss of Arctic sea ice in summer. As the rate of global warming increases, so does the amplitude and duration of extreme weather and climate events.