Natural selection could determine whether <i>Acropora</i> corals persist under expected climate change

Marine heatwaves are intensifying under climate change, exposing populations of reef-building corals to mass mortality and intense selective pressure. It remains unknown whether adaptation can keep pace with warming and maintain reef functioning. We have developed an eco-evolutionary metapopulation model for <i>Acropora</i>, an ecologically important yet thermally sensitive coral taxon. We found that, although corals have some adaptation capacity, they will suffer severe heatwave-induced declines over the coming decades. For a future in which emissions lead to ~3°C of global warming, natural selection could allow populations to persist, albeit in severely depleted states with elevated extinction risk and potential loss of ecosystem functioning. Yet, for thermally sensitive coral populations to thrive beyond 2050, there must be rapid reductions of greenhouse gas emissions that limit global warming to 2°C.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Science
Published
2024-11-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl6480
Citations
30
Primary Topic
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
13.77
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Natural selection could determine whether Acropora corals persist under expected climate change

Peter J. Mumby, Alasdair J. Edwards, Adriana Humanes, John C. Bythell et al.
30 citations
Science
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
13.77
article

Natural selection could determine whether Acropora corals persist under expected climate change

Peter J. Mumby, Alasdair J. Edwards, Adriana Humanes, John C. Bythell, Yves‐Marie Bozec, James R. Guest, Liam Lachs, Marine Gouezo, Cynthia Riginos, Yimnang Golbuu, Simon D. Donner, Holly K. East
article en
30 citations

Abstract

Marine heatwaves are intensifying under climate change, exposing populations of reef-building corals to mass mortality and intense selective pressure. It remains unknown whether adaptation can keep pace with warming and maintain reef functioning. We have developed an eco-evolutionary metapopulation model for <i>Acropora</i>, an ecologically important yet thermally sensitive coral taxon. We found that, although corals have some adaptation capacity, they will suffer severe heatwave-induced declines over the coming decades. For a future in which emissions lead to ~3°C of global warming, natural selection could allow populations to persist, albeit in severely depleted states with elevated extinction risk and potential loss of ecosystem functioning. Yet, for thermally sensitive coral populations to thrive beyond 2050, there must be rapid reductions of greenhouse gas emissions that limit global warming to 2°C.

ScienceVol. 386(6727)
Australian Institute of Marine Science (AU), University of British Columbia (CA), The University of Queensland (AU), Northumbria University (GB), Palau International Coral Reef Center (PW), Southern Cross University (AU), Newcastle University (GB)
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
13.77
DOISourceOpenAlex
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.