Urban growth scenario projection based on black hole optimization algorithm in arid areas

Spatial simulation and projection for municipalities in arid areas affected by climate and complex topography using cellular automata (CA) modeling is essential to promote urban sustainability. In this paper, a new BHO-CA model is developed using the black hole optimization (BHO) algorithm and applied to the urban simulation of Urumqi for the years 2010 and 2020. The results indicated that Urumqi's urban growth in the period 2000-2020 occurred mainly in the area perimeter of the city center, with obvious agglomeration characteristics; the overall accuracy for the BHO-CA model in 2010 was 98.43% and the figure of merit (FOM) was 43.37%, the overall accuracy in 2020 was 98.52% and the FOM was 37.06%, adequately proving the validity of this new model. Two possible scenarios were projected for Urumqi in 2030 using the BHO-CA model to contribute to the optimization of urban development and planning strategies.