Variables and Dynamics of the Middle Eastern System

<ns3:p>Background This study explores the transformative impact of three significant events on the Middle Eastern regional system: the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the Arab Spring of 2011, and the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. These events have altered the regional balance, leading to an evolving, complex, and multi-polar system. This research assesses the role of both state and non-state actors, examining their influence on the region’s stability and overall structure. Methods Employing a mixed-method approach that combines area studies and international relations (IR) theory, this study examines the regional power dynamics using twelve indicators to assess hard and soft power, including economic, military, and socio-political metrics. The analysis positions regional actors within a multi-tiered structure, evaluating the interplay between internal and external influences to explain the current distribution of power. Results The study finds that the Middle Eastern system has developed into a hierarchical yet anarchic structure, characterized by a competitive and multi-polar power distribution. Although external actors, such as the United States, continue to play pivotal roles, regional powers – including Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, and Iran – exert significant influence, leading to an inherently unstable system. This dynamic interplay fosters competition and limits cooperative stability. Conclusion The findings suggest that the Middle Eastern regional system’s volatility is rooted in this unique distribution of power, where continuous struggles among actors contribute to persistent instability. Understanding these dynamics is essential for assessing future developments and potential stability within the region.</ns3:p>