Gıda Fiyatlarındaki Artışların İncelenmesi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

In this study, 5 different econometric models are constructed by determining the variables affecting food price increases in Turkey. Monthly data for the years 2005-2023 are used. The coefficients of the models are estimated by Dynamic Least Squares method. TUFE_GIDA (food and non-alcoholic beverages series), TUFE_IMG (CPI unprocessed food series) and producer prices of agricultural products (UFE_TARIM) are used to represent the food prices variable. In all models, the exchange rate increases food prices. Similarly, increases in diesel prices increase TUFE_GIDA and TUFE_IMG. As expected, increases in the export volume of agricultural products increase food prices, while increases in the import volume of agricultural products increase food prices. While increases in producer prices of agricultural products increase TUFE_IMG, increases in producer food prices increase TUFE_FOOD. World food prices have an increasing effect on TUFE_GIDA. The increase in fertilizer prices increases producer prices of agricultural products. The 2008 and 2018 economic crises and the dummy variable used to represent the Covid-19 pandemic also increase food prices. Keywords: Dynamic Least Squares method, Price Indices.