Climate-driven distributional shifts in Chocó endemic birds of southwest Colombia

Introduction Climate change poses a significant threat to bird communities, especially forest-dwelling and narrowly distributed species, which are expected to experience severe range contractions and higher extinction risks compared to widely distributed and open-area species. The Chocó region in southwestern Colombia, known for its rich bird endemism, is particularly vulnerable. Methods We analyzed potential distribution shifts for 27 endemic and near-endemic bird species in the Chocó region using eBird occurrence records and climate projections. We modeled species distributions under low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2050 and 2070, comparing these projected distributions to current forested and protected areas to evaluate future conservation needs. Results Our findings indicate that nearly all species are projected to lose climate-suitable areas under at least one future scenario, resulting in a regional decline in species richness. Changes in species richness are most pronounced near the Colombia-Ecuador border, suggesting a shift to higher elevations. Notably, the Scarlet-and-white Tanager ( Chrysothlypis salmoni ) is predicted to suffer the greatest losses in climate-suitable area, both within protected and forested regions. Discussion These results highlight the urgency of expanding the protected area network and conserving key forested regions to help species adapt to climate change. By providing projected distribution maps and potential range shifts, our study underscores the importance of modeling future distributions to support conservation strategies for at-risk species and the ecological services they provide in tropical montane regions.