Techno-economic analysis and process simulation of alkoxylated surfactant production in a circular carbon economy framework

• Novel TEA of AE7 surfactant production using CO2 from steel industry flue gas • CO2 conversion rates around 3% in different processing capacities • Green hydrogen costs are the biggest factor influencing minimum selling price (MSP) • Lowest MSP of $8.77/kg exceeds the forecasted $3.75/kg for fossil-based AE7 • Monte Carlo simulation shows a 21% chance of positive NPV vs. bio-based surfactants Successfully transitioning to a net-zero and circular carbon economy requires adopting innovative technologies and business models to capture CO 2 and convert it into valuable chemicals and materials. Given the high economic costs and limited funding available for this transition, robust economic modelling of potential circular carbon pathways is essential to identify economically viable routes. This study introduces a novel techno-economic analysis (TEA) of producing alcohol ethoxylate (AE7), a valuable surfactant, from industrial flue gas. Traditionally, AE7 is produced by reacting fatty alcohols with ethylene oxide derived from fossil or bio-based sources. This research explores a method using CO 2 captured from steel industry flue gas to produce AE7, addressing a notable gap in the literature. It evaluates a thermo-catalytic pathway involving Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis with syngas generated by the reverse-water gas-shift reaction, where CO 2 reacts with H 2 . CO 2 conversion rates range around 3% across processing capacities of 25 kt/a, 100 kt/a, and 1000 kt/a. The study finds that the CO 2 mass fraction concentration in the process emission is 2.47 × 10 –5 , compared to 0.13 in the incoming flue gas, highlighting the system's positive environmental impact. A radial basis function neural network was built to forecast the long-term average price of fossil-based and bio-based surfactants to benchmark the results against. Economic analysis reveals that the cost of green hydrogen significantly impacts the minimum selling price (MSP), making cost parity with existing fossil-based surfactants challenging. The lowest MSP of $8.77/kg remains above the long-term forecasted price of $3.75/kg for fossil-based C 12–14 AE7. However, Monte Carlo simulations show a 21% probability of achieving a positive net present value (NPV) compared to leading bio-based surfactant alternatives. Sensitivity analyses identify capital costs, the price of low-carbon hydrogen (LCOH), and diesel prices as the most influential factors affecting the MSP. Continued advancements in Fischer-Tropsch catalyst technologies, reductions in green hydrogen costs and growing consumer demand for environmentally friendly products could significantly enhance the economic feasibility of this sustainable approach, paving the way for broader adoption and contributing to a circular carbon economy.