Study on Territorial Spatial Equilibrium Based on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study of the Southwest Guangxi Karst‐Beibu Gulf, China

ABSTRACT Exploring the regional territorial spatial equilibrium state (TSES) has emerged as a key goal of “Two Mountains” planning and decision‐making, as well as territorial spatial governance. However, there is still a shortage of perspectives that consider the ecosystem service value (ESV) to reveal and predict TSES. To this end, this study develops a framework for analyzing the interaction between ESV and socio‐economic value (SEV), investigates the pattern, process, and mechanism of their interaction employing spatial equilibrium model, and couples the MOP‐PLUS model to predict the interaction between the two under different scenarios, in order to fill in the gaps of the current research. The results show that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the ESV (decreasing trend) and SEV (increasing trend) in the Southwest Guangxi Karst‐Beibu Gulf (SGK‐BG) show opposite trends and distribution patterns. Under all three simulated projection scenarios, the projected ESV of SGK‐BG in 2030 shows different degrees of decreases, with economic development leading to the greatest fluctuations in the rate of decrease; the implementation of an ecological protection strategy leads to a small decrease in the SEV, and vice versa. (2) The TSE for coordinated equilibrium state (CES) districts and counties are mainly clustered in the GSK region, with the number in 2020 increasing by 30% compared to 1980; the ecological imbalance state (EIS) areas are mainly located in the central part of the study area and some districts along the coast of the Beibu Gulf, and the developmental imbalance state (DIS) areas are located in the northwestern part of the study area. The above three TSES have the highest number of distributions in the business as usual scenario (BAUS), the economic development first scenario (EDFS), and the ecological conservation first scenario (ECFS), respectively. The above differences in different spatial equilibriums reveal a serious developmental imbalance between economic development and ecological conservation. This study emphasizes the pathways evolution of different equilibrium subregions under the realization of ESV, and the evaluation results are not only a useful supplement to the research on the “Two Mountains” theory, but also can help policymakers to provide scientific decisions in promoting the synergistic, equilibrium and orderly development of the region.