Aggregation Modeling for Integrated Energy Systems Based on Chance-Constrained Optimization

Integrated energy systems (IESs) strengthen electricity–gas–heat multi-energy coupling and reduce wind and light abandonment. For grids with superior distribution, IESs are similar to virtual energy storage systems and are able to realize efficient interaction with the grid by synergizing the operating status of the internal equipment and improving the security, economy, and flexibility of the grid’s operation. However, the internal equipment coupling of an IES is complex, and determining how to evaluate its adjustable capacity range (that is, the upper and lower boundaries of its external energy demand) considering the uncertainty and volatility of wind power and photovoltaic output is a problem to be solved. To solve this problem, this paper presents a chance-constrained evaluation method for the adjustable capacity of IESs. Firstly, mathematical models and operational constraints of each device within the IES are established. Secondly, based on the mathematical model of chance-constrained planning, an adjustable capacity range assessment model considering the uncertainty of wind and photovoltaic output is established. Finally, the MATLAB/Yalmip/Gurobi solver is used for the optimization solution, and the adjustable capacity range interval of the constructed IES model is solved using an arithmetic example to analyze and verify the correctness and validity of the method and to study the influencing factors of its adjustable range.