Lower obstetrician and gynecologist (OBGYN) supply in abortion-ban states, despite minimal state-level changes in the 2 years post-<i>Dobbs</i>

Since the <i>Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization</i> Supreme Court decision in June 2022, emerging reports suggest that the obstetrician and gynecologist (OBGYN) workforce is moving into states without abortion bans. Using a large national administrative database, we identified OBGYNs enrolling in new states from July 2017 through June 2024. We used difference-in-differences (DID) analyses to estimate the effect of <i>Dobbs</i> on enrollments by state abortion policy (ban vs no ban). Enrollments in ban states were lower than in no-ban states in most academic years (June-July) throughout the study period. In the 2 years post-<i>Dobbs</i>, DID models found no significant differences in enrollments in ban states relative to no-ban states. These findings indicate minimal state-level shifts in the OBGYN workforce following <i>Dobbs</i>. Past research has found that a complex constellation of factors drives physician movement, including state licensure, job availability, income, spousal job opportunities, and social support. While the effect of the <i>Dobbs</i> decision on the workforce are likely to be significant, the full impacts on the workforce will take years to fully unfold.