Scaled Sensitivity of Pavement–Mechanistic-Empirical Transfer Function Coefficients for Flexible and Rigid Pavements

The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO)Ware Pavement–Mechanistic-Empirical (ME) transfer functions need local calibration for reliable performance predictions. It is often not viable to calibrate all coefficients at the same time. Therefore, it is crucial to identify the most sensitive transfer function coefficients. Moreover, the sensitivity also indicates the impact of each coefficient on the performance prediction. Several studies have shown the sensitivity of the Pavement-ME design inputs, but limited research is available on the sensitivity of transfer function coefficients. Typically, the sensitivity is obtained using a normalized sensitivity index (NSI). This paper estimated the sensitivity of the Pavement-ME transfer function coefficients using scaled sensitivity coefficients (SSCs). NSI values are compared with the SSCs. Ten sections, each from flexible and rigid pavements, were used to calculate the NSI values. These are existing pavement sections from the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) pavement management system (PMS) database, designed using the 1993 AASHTO design guide. Results show that SSCs provide a more reliable sensitivity on a range of independent variables rather than a point estimate, unlike NSI. NSI values showed variability among different sections and magnitudes of predicted performance. Calculation of SSCs is a forward problem and does not require any input data. A mathematical model (transfer function) is needed; therefore, SSCs can be calculated on any range of independent variables. It also shows the potential correlation between different coefficients and accuracy in estimation.