Canada's emission reduction targets look hard to reach

Significance Rising emissions from the hydrocarbons sector threaten the country’s goal of reducing overall emissions by 40-45% from 2005 levels by 2030. However, Canada’s embrace of wind and solar has been limited, and a lack of common policy direction between federal and provincial governments suggests a regionally uneven energy transition. Impacts The expansion of the country’s LNG industry will lock Canada further into the international trade in hydrocarbons. A rise in US hydrocarbon exports to the rest of the world should sustain US demand for Canadian oil and gas. Investment in wind and solar power will likely gather strength but still looks unlikely to reach the breakout growth needed for net zero.