Eswatini will likely stick with Taiwan over China

Significance The small southern African country is the only remaining nation on the continent to recognise Taiwan’s independence. China continues to apply political and economic pressure, particularly through offers of new investments, to try to persuade King Mswati III to abandon this position. Impacts Switching recognition would likely offer Eswatini substantial short-term economic benefits in terms of increased Chinese investment flows. Over the long term, a change in recognition would probably have little sustained economic impact. Any Chinese backing for Eswatini’s opposition would risk exposing Chinese hypocrisy in its policy of non-interference. Supporting Eswatini’s opposition would offer China a rare opportunity to present itself as a champion of human rights. Western powers that back Mswati in the hope of needling China risk appearing hypocritical in their claims to support human rights.