Forensic Seismic Evidence for Precursory Mobilization in Gaza Leading to the October 7 Hamas Attack

Abstract This study analyzes the seismic noise wavefield recorded before the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel. Preattack activity involved large-scale mobilization, as was documented by various media sources. Opportune conditions stemming from a temporary reduction in Israeli anthropogenic activity enabled the identification of signals generated by vehicular movement in Gaza at three regional seismic stations. Seismogram analysis reveals a widespread signal that abruptly emerged above the nighttime noise levels about 20 min before the attack began. Previous Saturday mornings did not exhibit interstation correlations and signal amplitudes as high as the ones observed on the three stations in the minutes before the attack began. Statistical analysis suggests the October 7 preattack signal is highly anomalous and unlikely to emerge by chance. Tripartite array analysis was used to detect surface waves, locate their sources, and demarcate the extent of preattack activity within the Gaza Strip. The signal’s amplitude, frequency, and spatiotemporal distribution appear to be aligned with vehicular traffic emanating from the south-central region of the Gaza Strip and extending toward its peripheries in the half-hour window preceding the invasion. This analysis underscores the potential utility of seismic noise measurements in identifying large-scale terrorist vehicular mobilizations in advance.