Does Agricultural Science and Technological Innovation Always Boost Farmers’ Income? Evidence from China

Agricultural science and technological innovation (ASTI) provides important opportunities to enhance agricultural welfare. Based on comparative advantage, value chain, and resource dependence theories, this study employed a variety of econometric models, including fixed effects (FEs), panel-corrected standard errors (PCSEs), feasible generalized least squares (FGLSs), and the systematic generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM), to investigate the impacts of ASTI on farmers’ income using data from a panel of 31 Chinese provinces spanning from 2012 to 2021. Our results reveal that ASTI contributes significantly positively to income growth, but its effects are not uniform: the central and western regions benefit more from ASTI compared to the eastern region. Moreover, as the level of ASTI increases, its positive impact on income growth diminishes. However, regions with higher levels of rural human capital—measured by educational attainment and skills—experience a more pronounced amplification of ASTI’s benefits on income. Additionally, aging populations in both urban and rural areas initially enhance the influence of ASTI on farmers’ income, but this effect diminishes as demographic gaps widen.