The spatial differentiation mechanism of intangible cultural heritage and its integration with tourism development based on explainable machine learning and coupled coordination models: a case study of the Jiang-Zhe-Hu in China

Abstract As a vital carrier of traditional culture, Intangible Cultural Heritage (ICH) not only preserves historical value but also fosters cultural identity and confidence. This study utilizes explainable machine learning and coupled coordination models to analyze the spatial distribution and formation mechanisms of ICH resources in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai (Jiang-Zhe-Hu). The results indicate that (1) ICH resources in the Jiang-Zhe-Hu exhibit a clustered distribution pattern characterized by “three primary cores and two secondary cores.” The primary core areas are Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Suzhou, while the secondary core areas are Yangzhou and Nanjing. (2) Population, number of religious places, and GDP have a significant positive impact on the distribution of ICH in the Jiang-Zhe-Hu. NDVI and road mileage have relatively minor effects on ICH distribution. (3) In terms of ICH resources, Zhejiang Province overall has a higher level than Jiangsu Province, with Lishui having the highest evaluation value and the most abundant resources. Regarding the level of tourism industry development, Shanghai has the highest comprehensive evaluation value, followed by Suzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Wuxi, and Changzhou, all of which have relatively high levels of tourism development. (4) According to the coupled coordination model analysis, Shanghai demonstrates the best coupling degree between ICH resources and the tourism industry, achieving a good coordination level. In Jiangsu Province, the integration of ICH resources and the tourism industry is relatively better in the southern (e.g., Nanjing, Suzhou), but there are still imbalances in development in the northern. Zhejiang Province has an overall higher degree of integration between ICH and the tourism industry compared to Jiangsu, with more balanced development. However, there is still room for improvement in the deep integration of ICH resources with the tourism industry.