Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Interactive Relationship Between Digital Economy and Green Development in China

A digital economy parallel with green development holds profound significance for achieving sustainability. The primary objective of this study was to explore the synergistic interaction effects between the digital economy and green development in China and forecast their future development. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of provincial digital economy and green development in China by integrating a combined assignment method, an unconditional spatial kernel density estimation method, and a standard deviation ellipse model. The interplay between the digital economy and green development was examined using a panel vector autoregression model. Additionally, digital economy and green development levels were forecasted using univariate time series and radial basis function kernel ε-support vector regression models. The results indicate that both the digital economy and green development levels in China exhibited an upward trend from 2013 to 2021, with the digital economy increasing at a faster rate. However, both domains demonstrated regional disparities in their development processes. The mutual interaction between the digital economy and green development intensified as the lag period increased. The digital economy contributed 21% to green development, whereas green development contributed 18% to the digital economy. The initial effect of the digital economy on green development was negative, however, this impact gradually diminished over time. Additionally, the influence of green development on the digital economy was shown to follow a consistent trend of transitioning from negative to positive across the eastern, central, and western regions. Therefore, it can be seen that the digital economy exerts a sustainable impact on green development, albeit with a one-phase lag. This research provides a scientific basis for the deep integration of the digital economy and green development, thereby fostering sustainable socioeconomic growth.