Accurate Method for Solar Power Generation Estimation for Different PV (Photovoltaic Panels) Technologies

In 2023, solar photovoltaic energy alone accounted for 75% of the global increase in renewable capacity. Moreover, this natural energy resource is the one that requires the least investment, which makes it accessible to developing countries. Increasing return on investment in these regions requires a particular evaluation of environmental parameters influencing PV systems performance. Higher temperatures decrease PV module efficiency and, as a result, their power output. Additionally, fluctuations in solar irradiance directly impact the energy generated by these systems. Consequently, it is essential for investors to improve accurate predictive models that assess the power generation capacity of photovoltaic systems under local environmental conditions. Therefore, accurate estimation of maximum power generation is then crucial for optimizing photovoltaic (PV) system performances and selecting suitable PV modules for specific climates. In this context, this study presents an experimental comparison of three maximum power prediction methods for four PV module types (amorphous silicon, monocrystalline silicon, micromorphous silicon, and polycrystalline silicon) under real outdoor conditions. Experimental data gathered over the course of a year are analyzed and processed for the four PV technologies. Three different methods taking into account environmental parameters are presented and analyzed. The first estimation method utilizes irradiance as the primary input parameter, while two additional methods incorporate ambient temperature and PV module temperature for enhanced accuracy. The performance of each method is evaluated using standard statistical metrics, including the root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The results demonstrate the effectiveness of all three methods, with RMSE values ranging from 1.6 W to 3.8 W and R2 values consistently above 0.95. The most appropriate method for estimating PV power output is determined by the specific type of photovoltaic module and the availability of meteorological parameters. This study provides valuable insights for selecting an appropriate maximum power prediction method and choosing the most suitable PV module for a given climate.