Macro Issues of Urban and Rural Development and Land Area in the Horizon of Iran 1420 with Strategic Future Approach
leading up to 2041, drawing on the insights of experts in the field.Consequently, this research adopts a descriptive approach, incorporating a literature review, document analysis, qualitative content analysis, and expert opinions.The study is practically oriented, centering on the primary research objective of examining significant urban development and land-use planning challenges in Iran up to 2041.In terms of its objectives, the research is applied, and its methodology integrates both qualitative and quantitative methods.The study population comprises experts from various disciplines, including geography (rural planning, urban planning, regional planning), economics, rural sociology, management, as well as urban and rural specialists, elites, managers, and youth from across the nation.A purposive sampling method was employed to select 70 participants for the completion of questionnaires and interviews. Results and DiscussionA multitude of issues and challenges confronting the development of urban and rural areas in the country has the potential to alter the future trajectory of land use planning in unpredictable ways.These challenges may profoundly transform the nation in the coming decades.Evidence of this transformation is evident in persistent trends such as demographic shifts, digitalization, and the expansion of cyberspace, as well as in the initial indications of new changes and transformations that may escalate over time.The following emerging changes and trends are poised to exert a significant influence on the future of urban and rural development, including comprehensive land use planning across the nation.This research identifies and examines the most critical macro-level issues pertaining to urban and rural development and land use planning in Iran by 2026. ConclusionThis research adopts a futuristic perspective and employs a qualitative-descriptive methodology to investigate these matters.To achieve the research objectives, an extensive review of relevant literature and library studies was conducted, supplemented by consultations with 70 experts across various domains.This process facilitated the identification of the primary challenges related to urban and rural development and land use within the context of Iran in the year 1420 (Islamic calendar).Subsequently, qualitative analysis was utilized to develop strategic scenarios aimed at addressing the identified challenges in the country's future trajectory.The findings reveal that Iran will likely experience sudden disruptions and heightened uncertainties, compounded by economic, social, political, environmental, demographic, geopolitical, and climate-related factors, as well as issues related to cyberspace and increasing inequalities.Furthermore, there are unanticipated and unaddressed threats on the horizon.In response to these challenges, twenty future scenarios were devised, designed to confront the macro-level issues highlighted in the research, while also challenging current assumptions and posing critical questions regarding the nation's future .These scenarios provide strategic insights into how Iran can prepare to meet the evolving needs of its urban and rural communities as the country approaches the year 1420, in light of a dynamic and uncertain future .
Authors
- Saeed Nazari
- Aliakbar Jafarloo
- Monireh Ghofran
Institutions
- University of Sistan and Baluchestan (IR)
- Islamic Azad University, Isfahan (IR)
- Payame Noor University (IR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences
- Published
- 2024-11-27
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.61186/jgs.25.77.11
- Primary Topic
- Regional resilience and development
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00