Multicentennial cycles in continental demography synchronous with solar activity and climate stability
Human population dynamics and their drivers are not well understood, especially over the long term and on large scales. Here, we estimate demographic growth trajectories from 9 to 3 ka BP across the entire globe by employing summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates. Our reconstruction reveals multicentennial growth cycles on all six inhabited continents, which exhibited matching dominant frequencies and phase relations. These growth oscillations were often also synchronised with multicentennial variations in solar activity. The growth cycle for Europe, reconstructed based on >91,000 radiocarbon dates, was backed by archaeology-derived settlement data and showed only a weak correlation with mean climate states, but a strong correlation with the stability of these states. We therefore suggest a link between multicentennial variations in solar activity and climate stability. This stability provided more favourable conditions for human subsistence success, and seems to have induced synchrony between regional growth cycles worldwide.
Authors
- Carsten Lemmen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3483-6036)
- Detlef Gronenborn (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6467-5643)
- Aleksandr Diachenko (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6959-2919)
- Eduardo Zorita (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7264-5743)
- Nicolas Antunes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8894-2283)
- Julian Laabs (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1378-3908)
- Rowan McLaughlin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4923-1339)
- Kai Wirtz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6972-3878)
- Gerrit Lohmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2089-733X)
Institutions
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE)
- Leipzig University of Applied Sciences (DE)
- National University of Ireland, Maynooth (IE)
- Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (DE)
- Deutsches Archäologisches Institut, Zentrale (DE)
- Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften Kiel (DE)
- Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE)
- University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (DE)
- Institute of Archeology (UA)
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon (DE)
- Clinical Research Center Kiel (DE)
- Leipzig University (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2024-11-26
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54474-w
- Citations
- 6
- Primary Topic
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 2.26
Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche
- Irish Research Council
- Helmholtz Association