Assessing the impact of renewable energy integration on energy efficiency within the China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC)

This study investigates the impact of renewable energy integration on energy efficiency within the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from 2000 to 2022. Efficient renewable energy utilization is crucial for the CPEC's sustainable development. We employed multiple linear regression analysis on data from national energy statistics databases to examine the relationship between energy efficiency defined as the ratio of total renewable energy output to input in (TWh) and four renewable energy sources: hydropower, biofuel, solar PV, and geothermal. Our model controlled for potential confounding factors and met assumptions of linearity, multivariate normality, and absence of multicollinearity. Hydropower exhibited a highly significant negative correlation with energy efficiency (-0.632, p < 0.001), with a regression coefficient of -7.642 × 10⁻⁴ (p < 0.001). Similarly, biofuel showed a significant negative correlation (-0.222, p < 0.001) and a coefficient of -9.580 × 10⁻⁴ (p < 0.001). These findings suggest that increased production from these sources is associated with decreased energy efficiency, potentially due to transmission losses or inefficiencies in conversion technologies. In contrast, solar PV (-0.027, p = 0.638) and geothermal (-0.014, p = 0.806) showed no statistically significant relationship with energy efficiency, indicating that at their current scales of deployment, they do not significantly impact overall efficiency. A moderate negative correlation (r=-0.114, p = 0.047) was observed between solar PV and geothermal production, possibly reflecting resource allocation choices within the renewable energy portfolio. These results highlight the need for targeted interventions to improve the efficiency of hydropower and biofuel production and emphasize the potential for future contributions from solar PV and geothermal as their deployment and grid integration expands. The findings contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between renewable energy generation and overall energy efficiency within large-scale development projects.