Birth Rate Prediction in China Based on Combination Algorithm of Factor Analysis and Neural Network

China has always been a large population, but in recent years, China’s birth rate has not increased, but has a downward trend. Therefore, on January 1, 2016, China opened the two-child policy for the first time since family planning was normal, but it has not worked, and even showed a downward trend year by year. At the same time, China’s age structure has shown an aging trend. In order to improve this situation, the three-child policy and a series of related auxiliary welfare policies were released on May 31, 2021. To this end, this article collects 11 factors that affect the birth rate in China from 2005 to 2022, such as housing price, education, child support and old-age support. The analysis method is used to reduce the dimension, and two comprehensive factors are obtained, and then the neural network model is used to predict the birth rate based on two comprehensive factors. Use the data of the first 16 years as training data, all 18 years are predicted as test data, and the average error between the predicted birth rate data and the actual birth rate data is $2.75 \%$. The prediction effect of the model is very good. Through this model, the birth rate in China is $6.7 \%-6.8 \%$ in the next 6 years. It is still at a relatively low level and shows a gradual downward trend.