Near-Earth stream decoherence revisited: the limits of orbital similarity

Context . Orbital similarity measures, such as the D values, have been extensively used in meteor science to identify meteoroid streams and associate meteorite falls with near-Earth objects (NEOs). However, the chaotic nature of near-Earth space challenges the long-term reliability of these measures for stream identification, and the increasing size of our fireball, meteorite fall, and NEO databases make random associations more common. Despite this, many researchers erroneously continue to use orbital similarity beyond its inherent limits. Aims . We aim to assess the statistical significance of using orbital similarity measures for identifying streams of meteoroids or asteroids and explore the implications of chaotic dynamics on the long-term coherence of these streams. Methods . We employed a kernel density estimation (KDE) based method to evaluate the statistical significance of orbital similarities within different datasets. Additionally, we conducted a Lyapunov characteristic lifetime analysis and simulated 300 fictitious meteoroid streams to estimate the decoherence lifetimes in near-Earth space. The orbital similarity was determined using the D SH , D′, and D H orbital similarity discriminants. Clustering analysis relied on a density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm. Results . Our analysis found no statistically significant streams within the meteorite fall, fireball, or USG impact datasets, with orbital similarities consistent with random associations. Conversely, 12 statistically significant clusters were identified within the NEO population, likely resulting from tidal disruption events. The Lyapunov lifetime analysis revealed short characteristic lifetimes (60–200 years) for orbits in near-Earth space, emphasizing the rapid divergence of initially similar orbits. Meteoroid stream decoherence lifetimes ranged from 10 4 to 10 5 years, aligning with previous studies and underscoring the transient nature of such streams. Conclusions . The rapid decoherence of meteoroid streams and the chaotic dynamics of near-Earth orbits suggest that no reported stream or NEO associations of meteorites or fireballs are statistically significant according to orbital similarity functions. Many are likely coincidental rather than indicative of a true physical link. However, several statistically significant clusters found within the NEO population are consistent with a tidal disruption formation. This contrast and lack of statistically significant associations amongst the impact datasets is likely due to the fireball databases being 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the NEO database and the higher intrinsic uncertainties of fireball observation derived orbits.