Objective probabilities and subjective risks

The article shows, using elementary examples, that risk assessment depends both on the probability of future events and on their results. Various approaches to the integration of probabilities and numerical estimates of possible outcomes are shown and analyzed. The subjective nature of risk is substantiated. An interdisciplinary definition of risk is proposed, not associated with any science or group of sciences. The definition is based on the idea that risk is a consequence of decisions made by the subject, who evaluates their consequences. The question is raised about responsibility for decisions under risk conditions.

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Publication Details

Journal
Siberian Journal of Philosophy
Published
2024-11-23
DOI
https://doi.org/10.25205/2541-7517-2024-22-1-5-15
Primary Topic
Risk Perception and Management
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Objective probabilities and subjective risks

В. С. Диев
Siberian Journal of Philosophy
Risk Perception and Management
article

Objective probabilities and subjective risks

В. С. Диев
article en

Abstract

The article shows, using elementary examples, that risk assessment depends both on the probability of future events and on their results. Various approaches to the integration of probabilities and numerical estimates of possible outcomes are shown and analyzed. The subjective nature of risk is substantiated. An interdisciplinary definition of risk is proposed, not associated with any science or group of sciences. The definition is based on the idea that risk is a consequence of decisions made by the subject, who evaluates their consequences. The question is raised about responsibility for decisions under risk conditions.

Siberian Journal of PhilosophyVol. 22(1)
Novosibirsk State University (RU), Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Philosophy (CZ)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Openalex Percentile: Top 66%
Risk Perception and Management
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