How Putin’s Perceived Threats Escalate Russia-West Tensions: a Balance of Threat-Based Content Analysis

Abstract The Russia-Ukraine conflict in the past decade has garnered attention as a subject of inquiry because of its implications for security in the international system. This research examines the relationship between Russia’s perceived threats from the West and the subsequent fluctuations in tensions in the reciprocal relations between Russia and the West. The researcher used an explanatory design and a qualitative method with deductive reasoning for a cross-sectional study. The Russian president was selected as the sample, and data related to Putin’s annual speeches to the Federal Assembly from 2014 to 2024 were examined using manual conceptual content analysis in line with Stephen Walt’s balance of threat theory. The author discovered that Russia’s perceived threats from the West prompted the development of strategies that involved assertive measures to counter them. The research concludes that the Russian president’s perceived threats from the West have escalated tension in the Russia-West mutual relations, confirming the research’s hypothesis.