Multi-Scenario Simulation of the Production-Living-Ecological Spaces in Sichuan Province Based on the PLUS Model and Assessment of Its Ecological and Environmental Effects

Research investigates the transformations in production–living–ecological spaces (PLES) across diverse scenarios and their ecological effects, with the aim of offering advice for environmental preservation and long-term growth in Sichuan Province. Utilizing the PLUS model, we simulated the PLES configuration in Sichuan Province for the year 2030 and subsequently evaluated its ecological impacts using an ecological effect assessment model. The findings reveal that: (1) population and GDP are key drivers of the expansion of Industrial-Production Spaces (IMPS), Urban-Living Spaces (ULS), and Rural-Living Spaces (RLS), whereas altitude has a crucial influence on shaping the expansion of Agricultural-Production Spaces (APS), Forest-Ecological Spaces (FES), Grassland-Ecological Spaces (GES), Water-Ecological Spaces (WES), and Other-Ecological Spaces (OES); (2) significant changes in PLES are observed in Sichuan Province by 2030 across four scenarios, with notable distinctions between the production priority scenario and the other three; (3) variations in ecological quality exist among the four scenarios concerning PLES; (4) the reasons behind better or worse ecological conditions differ across scenarios. The research demonstrates that the PLUS model can effectively simulate PLES in Sichuan Province under multiple scenarios for 2030, offering various potential development pathways and their corresponding ecological effects, thereby aiding in the selection of optimal development pathways.