Evaluating Alternative Transformation Pathways of Wood-Based Bioeconomy: Application of an Input–Output Model

The wood-based bioeconomy is one of the main pillars of sustainable transformation and decarbonisation of the economy, as it promotes the use of renewable resources, reduces reliance on fossil fuels, and supports the development of eco-friendly industries. The paper provides quantitative insight into the potential impacts of transformation of the wood-based bioeconomy in Slovenia, a small, export-oriented economy with ample, but sub-optimally used, forest resources. The analysis uses an input–output (I-O) model to estimate I-O multipliers of sectors representing the wood-based bioeconomy and to capture their direct and indirect impacts on the Slovenian economy. The baseline performance of the wood bioeconomy sectors and their potential to induce economic activity (Scenario A) are estimated with an adjusted I-O model (based on the national I-O table for 2015), in which hybrid sectors are divided into conventional and bio-based segments. Alternative transformation pathways are translated into four additional scenarios. While Scenario B foresees progress in efficiency and integration within the existing structure of transactions, Scenario C (increased energy use of wood biomass) and Scenarios D/D+ (technology- and capital-intensive restructuring) represent two extreme restructuring pathways of the sector. The results of scenario analysis with the I-O model show that the changes in the input requirement structure of the Slovenian wood-based bioeconomy could result in up to a 17% increase in total output, up to a 20% increase in the number of employees, and up to a 16% increase in incomes, all of them attributed to the most optimistic scenario (D+). The results of the study provide quantified assessments underpinning strategic planning for the wood-based bioeconomy, both in the industry and public policy spheres.