North Korea's Nuclear Strategy: Limited Nuclear Use and Escalation Management*

This article speculates on how North Korea will use nuclear weapons if the Korean War resumes and addresses how the ROK‐US Alliance should prepare for it. North Korea has strong incentives to arm itself with nuclear weapons for the regime's survival and for various other political, diplomatic, and economic goals. North Korea's nuclear weapons clearly indicate it is not merely arming itself for deterrence, negotiation, domestic solidarity, or prestige. It is the most likely country to employ nuclear weapons if they are ever used again in battle. North Korea is highly likely to use nuclear weapons in various ways, not only to make up for its weakness in conventional forces but also to coerce the Alliance in wartime. For this reason, there is a growing research trend calling for countermeasures against the possibility of North Korea preemptively using tactical nuclear weapons. Despite this shift in focus and the urgent strategic requirements called for, adequate systematic analyses of North Korea's nuclear strategy have not been made. This article assesses North Korea's nuclear strategy with an introduction to limited nuclear use (LNU) and escalation management (EM), followed by proposals for viable countermeasures by the Alliance. North Korea is most likely to use nuclear weapons in a limited manner to achieve strategic goals while avoiding nuclear retaliation by the USA in all phases of a war. The Alliance faces a challenge to establish an appropriate strategy to manage the dilemma over North Korea's nuclear strategy.