Dynamics of Zinder’s Urban Landscape: Implications for Sustainable Land Use Management and Environmental Conservation

Unplanned urban expansion poses significant challenges to environmental sustainability and urban planning. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of Zinder’s urban landscape using Landsat satellite imagery from 1988, 2000, 2011, and 2022. The study applied remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS) techniques, and urban growth models. The random forest classifier, a machine learning algorithm, was used to classify three land use/land cover categories: “vegetation”, “built-up”, and “others”. Zinder’s arid environment is characterized by sparse vegetation, which constitutes a limited but vital component of its landscape. Despite the already sparse vegetation in the area, the findings reveal a 3.5% reduction in vegetation cover between 1988 and 2022, alongside an 11.5% increase in “built-up” areas and an 8% decrease in the “others” category. This loss of already minimal vegetation raises significant concerns about environmental degradation and the exacerbation of desertification risks. Interestingly, urban expansion showed no significant correlation with population growth (r = 0.29, p > 0.5), suggesting that other factors, such as economic activities, infrastructure development, and land use policies, drive land conversion. Edge expansion emerged as the dominant growth type, with a significant directional preference (Chi-Square = 2334.41, p < 0.001) toward major roads and areas with higher accessibility to public services. These findings emphasize the need for strategic urban planning and land management policies to address the drivers of unplanned expansion. Prioritizing sustainable infrastructure development, enforcing land use regulations, and conserving natural landscapes are critical to balancing urban growth with environmental preservation, ensuring resilience and sustainability in Zinder.