Can a Driving Restriction Policy Improve Air Quality? Empirical Evidence from Chengdu

Automotive exhaust emissions contribute significantly to air pollution in developing countries. However, the effectiveness of driving restriction policies (DRPs) is unclear, and most research on China emphasizes Beijing. This study used Chengdu, a typical large city in China, to examine the impact of a DRP on air quality. To alleviate potential endogeneity threats, we employed a regression discontinuity design to verify the policy’s effect. The results show that the DRP significantly reduced air pollution levels, effectively improving air quality in restricted areas. The heterogeneity analysis found that (1) the DRP effectively reduced pollution in newly added and original areas, while the air quality in adjacent areas deteriorated; and (2) the DRP significantly improved air quality during peak travel periods but had no significant impact in other periods. Our results indicate that the DRP is an effective tool for urban environmental governance but presents potential negative aspects. Therefore, restricted areas and periods should be carefully considered when designing similar policies. This study provides significant insights into the governance of automotive exhaust emissions pollution for large cities in developing countries.