Climatological Trends and Effects of Aerosols and Clouds on Large Solar Parks: Application Examples in Benban (Egypt) and Al Dhafrah (UAE)

Solar energy production is vastly affected by climatological factors. This study examines the impact of two primary climatological factors, aerosols and clouds, on solar energy production at two of the world’s largest solar parks, Benban and Al Dhafrah Solar Parks, by using Earth observation data. Cloud microphysics were obtained from EUMETSAT, and aerosol data were obtained from the CAMS and assimilated with MODIS data for higher accuracy. The impact of both factors was analysed by computing their trends over the past 20 years. These climatological trends indicated the variations in the change in each of the factors and their resulting impact over the years. The trends were quantified into the actualised drop in energy production (Wh/m2/year) in order to obtain the impact of each factor. Aerosols displayed a falling trend of −17.78 Wh/m2/year for Benban and −44.88 Wh/m2/year for Al Dhafrah. Similarly, clouds also portrayed a largely falling trend for both stations, −36.29 Wh/m2/year (Benban) and −70.27 Wh/m2/year (Al Dhafrah). The aerosol and cloud trends were also observed on a monthly basis to study their seasonal variation. The trends were further translated into net increases/decreases in the energy produced and the resulting emissions released. The analysis was extended to quantify the economic impact of the trends. Owing to the falling aerosol and cloud trends, the annual production was foreseen to increase by nearly 1 GWh/year (Benban) and 1.65 GWh/year (Al Dhafrah). These increases in annual production estimated reductions in emission released of 705.2 tonne/year (Benban) and 1153.7 tonne/year (Al Dhafrah). Following these estimations, the projected revenue was foreseen to increase by 62,000 USD/year (Benban) and 100,000 USD/year (Al Dhafrah). Considering the geographical location of both stations, aerosols evidently imparted a larger impact compared with clouds. Severe dust storm events were also analysed at both stations to examine the worst-case scenario of aerosol impact. The results show that the realized losses during these events amounted to 2.86 GWh for Benban and 5.91 GWh for Al Dhafrah. Thus, this study showcases the benefits of Earth observation technology and offers key insights into climatological trends for solar energy planning purposes.