Weather Radars Reveal Environmental Conditions for High Altitude Insect Movement Through the Aerosphere

High-flying insects that exploit tropospheric winds can disperse over far greater distances in a single generation than species restricted to below-canopy flight. However, the ecological consequences of such long-range dispersal remain poorly understood. For example, high-altitude dispersal may facilitate more rapid range shifts in these species and reduce their sensitivity to habitat fragmentation, in contrast to low-flying insects that rely more on terrestrial patch networks. Previous studies have primarily used surface-level variables with limited spatial coverage to explore dispersal timing and movement. In this study, we introduce a novel application of niche modelling to insect aeroecology by examining the relationship between a comprehensive set of atmospheric conditions and high-flying insect activity in the troposphere, as detected by weather surveillance radars (WSRs). We reveal correlations between large-scale dispersal events and atmospheric conditions, identifying key variables that influence dispersal behaviour. By incorporating high-altitude atmospheric conditions into niche models, we achieve significantly higher predictive accuracy compared with models based solely on surface-level conditions. Key predictive factors include the proportion of arable land, altitude, temperature, and relative humidity.