Research on Spatial Heterogeneity, Impact Mechanism, and Carbon Peak Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Urban agglomerations with a high economic activity and population density are key areas for carbon emissions and pioneers in achieving carbon peaking and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study combines machine learning with an extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model to uncover the mechanisms driving carbon peaking disparities within these regions. It forecasts carbon emissions under different scenarios and develops indices to assess peaking pressure, reduction potential, and driving forces. The findings show significant carbon emission disparities among cities in the Yangtze River Delta, with a fluctuating downward trend over time. Technological advancement, population size, affluence, and urbanization positively impact emissions, while the effects of industrial structure and foreign investment are weakening. Industrially optimized cities lead in peaking, while others—such as late-peaking and economically radiating cities—achieve peaking only under the ER scenario. Cities facing population loss and demonstration cities fail to peak by 2030 in any scenario. The study recommends differentiated carbon peaking pathways for cities, emphasizing tailored targets, pathway models, and improved supervision. This research offers theoretical and practical insights for global urban agglomerations aiming to achieve early carbon peaking.