Estimating an Elephant Population Size Through Local Ecological Knowledge

In planning and monitoring measures to protect wildlife in an area, it is important to have a reliable baseline estimate of population size and trends. There has been minimal published information on a small population of elephants, a keystone and endangered species, in a large area west of Etosha National Park in Namibia, known locally as the Northern Highlands. It is a highly remote, mountainous area in which it is difficult to count elephants. It is semi-desert, where the protection of wildlife is at increasing risk from climate change events, and research on the elephant population is a priority. We interviewed 34 community game guards in the Northern Highlands, focusing on the number of elephants and distinguishing features in known groups. Based on the collated knowledge, and analysis to reduce double counting of known groups, we estimate that there are between 78 and 212 elephants in the Northern Highlands, with a best estimate of 128. The wide range is an indication of the current uncertainties in the method. However, we conclude that this low-cost method, if adapted based on lessons from this pilot study, would be applicable for longer-term ecological monitoring in areas that have a low population density.