Modelling of Line Outage Probability and Grid Risk Assessment Taking into Account Stochastic Load Flow

Under the vision of peak carbon and carbon neutral goals, the new power system mainly based on new energy poses new challenges to the safe operation of the power grid. Due to the influence of stochastic factors, which makes the complexity of grid structure and operational uncertainty increasing, the risk of large-scale power outages further increases, and the accurate assessment of the risk of power outage losses plays a significant role in the safe operation of power grids. This paper proposes a method to calculate stochastic load flow based on adaptive kernel density estimation and applies it to the self-organized critical model of the power grid, and finally selects value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as the risk metrics for risk assessment of different line faults, so as to derive the weak links of the power grid. On this basis, the rationality of the proposed model is verified by simulating the IEEE39 nodes.