Operational Reliability Evaluation for Integrated Energy Systems Considering Demand Response and Time-Varying Component Failure Rate

To improve the efficiency of operational reliability assessment and support risk prevention and control in system operation, this paper develops a demand response (DR) model based on tariff elasticity and load transfer rate to capture load changes before and after the implementation of time-of-day tariffs. An efficient model-data hybrid-driven approach is proposed for assessing the operational reliability of an integrated energy system taking into account the time-varying characteristics of component failure rates. Critical components are identified through risk factors based on price sensitivity and component operating conditions. A least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is utilized to establish the relationship between reliability and load level for fast reliability updating. Case studies validate the computational efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.