Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China

China's pursuit of carbon neutrality targets hinges on a profound shift towards low-carbon energy, primarily reliant on intermittent and variable, yet crucial, solar and wind power sources. In particular, low-solar-low-wind (LSLW) compound extremes present a critical yet largely ignored threat to the reliability of renewable electricity generation. While existing studies have largely evaluated the impacts of average climate-induced changes in renewable energy resources, comprehensive analyses of the compound extremes and, particularly, the underpinning dynamic mechanisms remain scarce. Here we show the dynamic evolution of compound LSLW extremes and their underlying mechanisms across China via coupling multi-model simulations with diagnostic analysis. Our results unveil a strong topographic dependence in the frequency of compound LSLW extremes, with a national average frequency of 16.4 (10th-90th percentile interval ranges from 5.3 to 32.6) days/yr, when renewable energy resources in eastern China are particularly compromised (∼80% lower than that under an average climate). We reveal a striking increase in the frequency of LSLW extremes, ranging from 12.4% under SSP126 to 60.2% under SSP370, primarily driven by both renewable energy resource declines and increasingly heavily-tailed distributions, resulting from weakened meridional temperature (pressure) gradient, increased frequency of extremely dense cloud cover and additional distinctive influence of increased aerosols under SSP370. Our study underscores the urgency of preparing for significantly heightened occurrences of LSLW events in a warmer future, emphasizing that such climate-induced compound LSLW extreme changes are not simply by chance, but rather projectable, thereby underscoring the need for proactive adaptation strategies. Such insights are crucial for countries navigating a similar transition towards renewable energy.

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Publication Details

Journal
National Science Review
Published
2024-11-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwae424
Citations
16
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.52

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article

Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China

Liangdian Huang, Xi Lu, Yue Qin, Steven J. Davis et al.
16 citations
National Science Review
Climate variability and models
4.52
article

Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China

Liangdian Huang, Xi Lu, Yue Qin, Steven J. Davis, Lei Zhao, Amir AghaKouchak, Xin Huang, Tong Fei Zhu, Yawen Liu, Licheng Wang, Yana Jin
article en
16 citations

Abstract

China's pursuit of carbon neutrality targets hinges on a profound shift towards low-carbon energy, primarily reliant on intermittent and variable, yet crucial, solar and wind power sources. In particular, low-solar-low-wind (LSLW) compound extremes present a critical yet largely ignored threat to the reliability of renewable electricity generation. While existing studies have largely evaluated the impacts of average climate-induced changes in renewable energy resources, comprehensive analyses of the compound extremes and, particularly, the underpinning dynamic mechanisms remain scarce. Here we show the dynamic evolution of compound LSLW extremes and their underlying mechanisms across China via coupling multi-model simulations with diagnostic analysis. Our results unveil a strong topographic dependence in the frequency of compound LSLW extremes, with a national average frequency of 16.4 (10th-90th percentile interval ranges from 5.3 to 32.6) days/yr, when renewable energy resources in eastern China are particularly compromised (∼80% lower than that under an average climate). We reveal a striking increase in the frequency of LSLW extremes, ranging from 12.4% under SSP126 to 60.2% under SSP370, primarily driven by both renewable energy resource declines and increasingly heavily-tailed distributions, resulting from weakened meridional temperature (pressure) gradient, increased frequency of extremely dense cloud cover and additional distinctive influence of increased aerosols under SSP370. Our study underscores the urgency of preparing for significantly heightened occurrences of LSLW events in a warmer future, emphasizing that such climate-induced compound LSLW extreme changes are not simply by chance, but rather projectable, thereby underscoring the need for proactive adaptation strategies. Such insights are crucial for countries navigating a similar transition towards renewable energy.

National Science ReviewVol. 12(1)
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US), Peking University (CN), University of California, Irvine (US), State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (CN), National Center for Supercomputing Applications (US), Irvine University (US), Nano Carbon (Poland) (PL), Nanjing University (CN), Tsinghua University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Climate variability and models
4.52
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