Indonesian National Mortality Rates using the Whittaker-Henderson Graduation Method

In this paper, we aim to present a graph depicting the quantified mortality rates for the entire population of Indonesia, derived from the 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) mortality data for Indonesia. First, the mortality rates which consisted of five-year age groups were interpolated to determine the rates for each individual age. Next, these rates were extrapolated to extend the data from age 85 up to age 110. The resulting crude rates were adjusted with the Whittaker-Henderson smoothing technique by utilizing Python and MS Excel. The refined results were then compared to the insured lives from the fourth Indonesian Mortality Rates Table (TMI IV). This assessment supplied the government with insights to help shape health policies and inform economic forecasts. The results indicated that male mortality rates were higher than those of females, although no significant difference was observed among the younger generation. On the contrary, mortality rates of old people were significantly greater compared to the insured lives which was due to WHO’s limited data availability and more comprehensive data collection process, compared to TMI IV’s insured lives through the underwriting process.

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Publication Details

Journal
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)
Published
2024-10-23
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31764/jtam.v8i4.26316
Primary Topic
Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Type
article
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article

Indonesian National Mortality Rates using the Whittaker-Henderson Graduation Method

Felivia Kusnadi, Gabrielle Aretha Setiady
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)
Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
article

Indonesian National Mortality Rates using the Whittaker-Henderson Graduation Method

Felivia Kusnadi, Gabrielle Aretha Setiady
article en

Abstract

In this paper, we aim to present a graph depicting the quantified mortality rates for the entire population of Indonesia, derived from the 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) mortality data for Indonesia. First, the mortality rates which consisted of five-year age groups were interpolated to determine the rates for each individual age. Next, these rates were extrapolated to extend the data from age 85 up to age 110. The resulting crude rates were adjusted with the Whittaker-Henderson smoothing technique by utilizing Python and MS Excel. The refined results were then compared to the insured lives from the fourth Indonesian Mortality Rates Table (TMI IV). This assessment supplied the government with insights to help shape health policies and inform economic forecasts. The results indicated that male mortality rates were higher than those of females, although no significant difference was observed among the younger generation. On the contrary, mortality rates of old people were significantly greater compared to the insured lives which was due to WHO’s limited data availability and more comprehensive data collection process, compared to TMI IV’s insured lives through the underwriting process.

JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)Vol. 8(4)
Parahyangan Catholic University (ID)
Openalex Percentile: Top 60%
Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
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Indonesian National Mortality Rates using the Whittaker-Henderson Graduation Method — Felivia Kusnadi, Gabrielle Aretha Setiady · JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS