Unveiling Well Performance through Integrated Numerical Modeling and Basin-Scale Data Analysis in the Midland Basin

This study explores the performance of high-density drilling spacing units (DSUs) in the Permian Basin, focusing on key drivers of well performance in shale oil reservoirs. A comprehensive simulation was conducted at the Hydraulic Fracture Test Site (HFTS-1) to develop an integrated workflow for understanding cross-bench well interference and the impact of completion parameters on production. A 3D heterogeneous corner-point model simulated hydraulic fracture propagation in two horizontal wells: one in Wolfcamp A and another in Wolfcamp B, accounting for interactions between hydraulic and natural fractures. The simulation revealed distinct fracture propagation patterns: in the Wolfcamp A well, fractures near the toe showed greater height but shorter half-lengths, while those near the heel exhibited shorter height but longer half-lengths. In contrast, Wolfcamp B displayed the opposite pattern, with fracture height growth more pronounced above the wellbore. The fracture system was then subjected to a production simulation (POP) based on actual well production sequences. Comparing the POP results of the combined well scenario with individual well scenarios showed a slight reduction in estimated oil production, suggesting well interference. Reservoir pressure analyses indicated that the pressure fields of the two stacked wells began to overlap early in their production, contributing to the interference. To further explore productivity drivers, the study utilized machine learning methods, including XGBoost and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) 1. This analysis identified critical factors such as fracturing fluid intensity, completion year (reflecting advancements in completion practices like cluster spacing), formation thickness, and initial gas-oil ratio. Sensitivity analyses showed that reducing cluster spacing significantly improves initial production, while increasing fluid intensity enhances long-term performance. The crossover point, where the impact of increased fluid intensity surpasses reduced cluster spacing, varied between Wolfcamp A and B. This work offers valuable guidance for optimizing completion strategies to maximize production potential in the Midland Basin’s shale oil formations.