The Impact of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Import Price Index

Global supply chains are vulnerable to external shocks, and fluctuations in prices of raw and intermediate materials can directly affect the domestic manufacturing sector. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of global supply chain shocks on Korea's import price index. Specifically, the global supply chain shock was composed of the Global Real Economic Activity Index(IGREA), the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index(GSCPI), and the Climate Policy Uncertainty Index(CPUI), and the import price index was analyzed by subdividing it into each price index of raw materials, intermediate goods, and final goods. The VAR model, the VECM model, and the impact response function were performed using monthly data from January 1998 to March 2024. As a result of the analysis, raw materials were particularly sensitive to impact, while the initial reaction tended to be insensitive to intermediate and final materials, and the final material tended to stabilize rapidly. Through this analysis, this study contributes to the effective management of the volatility of the import price index by preparing differentiated response strategies for each type of goods.