Perceptions, Reality, and Tolerance for Voting Wait Times in American Elections and Their Consequences for Democracy

Abstract Since 2012, voters in U.S. presidential elections have faced increasingly long wait times, depressing turnout, and undermining public confidence in the vote. While past studies have quantified differing levels of actual wait times, voters' perceptions about these wait times, which could directly influence their decision to vote, remain a black box. Using a novel nationally representative survey of the U.S. population, this study measures voters' perceptions of wait times, actual wait times, and willingness to wait. We ask whether some groups of voters expect longer waits and whether some are willing to wait longer than others. We also examine whether Americans who expect longer waits are actually less likely to vote. Overall, there seems to be more than willing to wait at the polls: 78 percent say they would wait over 30 minutes, while only 17 percent said they actually waited that long. At the individual level, women and nonwhite voters expect longer wait times, while lower-education voters marginally do. Women and less-educated voters, but not nonwhite voters, are less willing to wait at the polls. And the longer voters expect to wait, the less likely they are to vote. A voter who expects to wait 3 hours as opposed to not at all is 2.6 percentage points less likely to turn out. These findings highlight discrepancies between who expects and who is willing to wait through longer lines to cast their ballot. They bring with them important implications for policymakers.